Tech predictions for 2022

3 that will happen, 3 that will not happen

Joshua Dance

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Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Here is my humble attempt.

Cars continue to transition strongly to electric

In 2022, EV sales will double again to 12 million vehicles and new car market share will double to 18%.

This seems like a bold prediction but it already happened in 2021, and I think it will happen again. There were 6.6 million plug-in vehicles in 2021, more than double the 3 million sold in 2020, and plug-in vehicles rose to 9% of the global new-car market, up from 4.1% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2019.

A major company will announce AR glasses

Think less Hololens and more Warby Parker with a display.

Google Glass was the trail blazer, but doesn’t have anything close to wide adoption. I think Snap, Apple, or Meta or another dark horse will announce AR glasses meant for popular use in 2022.

Google Glass Enterprise Edition

A large NFT project or DAO will implode like the Fyre Festival

I define large at 10 million $ or more. I hope this doesn’t happen, but it seems likely as more money pours in but people are still people.

Crypto projects get ‘rugged’ all the time, but I predict unfortunately a large project will blow up. If I had to place bets I would say OlympusDAO.

Drone delivery will not take off in the US in 2022

Still enthusiastic about this for cheaper, carbon free delivery, but the complexities are a lot. See this video from Wendover.

TikTok won’t transition to revenue share

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Joshua Dance

Code, design, cook. Make stuff. Cookies. @BYU grad.