Reviewing my Predictions for 2017
Scrolling through my drafts I found that I had made predictions for the year 2017, but had never posted them. I completely forgot that I started writing the post.
So I decided to look through my dusty forgotten 2017 predictions and see how I did. (Narrators voice: He did… not very well 😄)
Predictions for 2017
2017 will be the hottest year on record. Again. = 🚫Wrong. But nearly correct.
2017 was the 3rd hottest year on record for the US, and 2nd hottest year on record for the world. I was close on this. But it was an easy prediction as the average yearly temperature has been rising for many years in a row.
Tesla Model 3 launch will get pushed back to early 2018. = 🚫Wrong.
Limited production of the Model 3 began in mid-2017, with the first production vehicle off the assembly line on July 7, 2017, with the official launch and delivery of the first 30 cars on July 28. On July 1, 2018, it was announced that Tesla had met its production goal of 5,000 cars in a week.
I am still in line for the cheaper Model 3, but I am happy I was wrong about this. I am a big fan of the work Tesla is doing.
There will be a CRISPR controversy. Someone will edit the gene of something that some thing shouldn’t be editing. (Possibly could happen in China) = 🚫Wrong. Too early.
I am surprised at this one. I don’t remember what research I did to make this predictions, as I was definitely on track, but early. The controversy about gene editing a human baby became public in Dec of 2018 and is in full swing, and it was a Chinese scientist.
Snap will go public. But the price will drop below the initial offering price as insiders try to liquidate. = ✅Correct!
Snap went public on March of 2017. And it is below the initial offering price. I should have listened more to my own predictions. More info below. :)
There will be another serious self driving car accident. = 🚫Wrong. It unfortunately happened a year later
An Uber self driving car killed a woman in Arizona in March of 2018. This is sad and companies and scientists should do everything they can to make sure the cars are as safe as possible. However, there were 37,133 deaths from accidents in 2017. I believe that self driving cars will greatly reduce this number and so should be pursued. While remembering that any lost of life is tragic and should not just be accepted as a consequence of improving the technology.
Capitalism, the free market, and personal responsibility will continue to work and more families will escape poverty. = ✅Correct!
The poverty rate declined in the US in 2017. The World Bank moved to publish global poverty data every other year so 2017 was an off year. But if the trend continues, yes global poverty did drop in 2017. This was an easy prediction as this has happened steadily since 1820. What is interesting is most people don’t believe the world is getting better.
Prices for solar energy will continue to drop. = ✅Correct
Can’t be too proud of this one. Solar prices have been dropping each year and continued to do so. I still want to put solar panels on my house. But renters don’t have as many options to do so.
Sears stock will drop below 5$, they will be bought out, or declare bankruptcy = ✅🚫Half Correct!
Sears stock hit $4.12 on November of 2017. They didn’t declare bankruptcy until Oct 2018. Not a hard one. Sears stock price had been dropping for years. And I got the bankruptcy part wrong being a year too early.
I made 8 predictions. I got 3.5 correct, and 4.5 wrong. 43% success rate.
I was early on a few.
However looking at my predictions, I found that I mostly predicted things to stay the same.
The only one that I am slightly proud of was predicting Snap would go public, but the price would drop below the initial offering price.
Which is funny because I forgot about that prediction, and I bought a few shares of Snap and lost money. So there is a nice -$47 prediction for you.
Why Make Predictions
I think making predictions can be useful in a few ways. It makes you think about what do you think will change? What do you think won’t change? How do you think the world will react? What direction do you think the world is headed in? It is also just fun to be able to say ‘I called that’.
However I do think that I should start including an Epistemic status and Epistemic effort on my predictions like Devon Zuegel does for her blog posts.
Basically at the top or bottom of her blog posts, she write out her Epistemic status and effort score as a way of showing how strongly she believes in or thinks a certain thing, and the effort that went into creating the belief.
This would be useful because it would show how much I really believe my own predictions. For example, if I was 95% sure that Snap would go public and then lose value, I should have shorted the stock. 💸
By posted the epistemic scores I would maybe think more carefully about predictions and do more research.